The Dawn

President Zardari made a trip to Dushambe and discussed many issues with the Tajik president. Most of it was reported in the press. One issues that was not mentioned by the press is the Bharati presence in Tajikistan. This has been identified as a huge issue for Pakistan. Bharati jets can take off from Farkhor and reach Pakistan within minutes. The base offers Bharat a bird-eye view of Northern Pakistan and the Migs that are stationed at the base are a direct threat to China and Pakistan. Ambassador Bhadrakumar actually reported that Bharat has two bases in Tajikistan.  India’s two bases in Tajikistan major threat to Pakistan & China!

These Bharati bases are a clear and present danger to China and Pakistan and must be shut down forthwith.

INDIA WANTS TO THREATEN CHINA CONTAIN PAKISTAN: The Singh strategy goes beyond the desire to clearly encircle Pakistan and face China in the coming few decades. India’s presence in Afghanistan along with her presence in the Central Asian Republic allows her to claim regional status and goes towards her goal of a world power aspiring to become a permanent seat on United National Security Council and a say in world affairs. The current regime in Afghanistan prefers Afghanistan to become an Indian vassal than to remain an independent country tied to Pakistan.

By establishing the military base in Dushambe,  India painted a red target on herself for not only all those that oppose the governments in those states, but also for her rivals in South and Central Asia, namely, China, Pakistan and Iran. Geographically Tajikistan is north of Pakistan separated by a narrow strip of Afghanistan that was created by the British Raj to separate the British Empire from the Russian Empire. The British had an “on to the Oxus Policy” and a few years later they retreated back to the Khyber pass leaving Afghanistan alone.Unable to control her own militancy in Kashmir, India now is poised to be bogged down in Tajikistan and Kashmir.

Many of Delhi’s leaders think of “India” as the land stretching from the Hindu Kush Mountains to the mythical land of Raj Kumari beyond Bali in Indonesia. These were the lands that Hindus lived in for centuries. After solidly defeating Pakistan in 1971, Indira Gandhi seemed to appreciate this notion of Indian Grandeur beyond the Subcontinent. This means physical control of the territory and also a string of satellite states circumnutating the country itself. Of course, this does not mean physical control of the geographical area thus delineated by Curzon. Unfriendly regimes are not to be tolerated in Indian sphere of influence the “security zones”, Curzon’s concept later refined by President Munro of the United States and named after him as the Munro Doctrine.

DELHI’S ATTEMPT TO EMULATE CURZON:

After subjugating “India” Drunk with victory, Cruzon wanted to rule the world.

“Lord Curzon celebrated India’s importance in The Place of India in the Empire (1909): The central position of India, its magnificent resources, its teeming multitude of men, its great trading harbors, its reserve of military strength, supplying an army always in a high state of efficiency and capable of being hurled at a moment’s notice upon any point either of Asia or Africa–all these are assets of precious value. On the West, India must exercise a predominant influence over the destinies of Persia and Afghanistan; on the north, it can veto any rival in Tibet; on the north-east . . . it can exert great pressure upon China, and it is one of the guardians of the autonomous existence of Siam. The New Great Game; Why the Bush administration has embraced India.Twining, Daniel

Curzon argued that the defense of the Empire entailed protection of the entire region between Kabul and the Amu Darya  (Oxus river) to the North, Colombo to the South, the Makran coast (now in Pakistan) to the West and Mandalay in Burma to the East. Lord Curzon seemed to think that that the Britain’s future lay in capturing and holding Central Asia.

“Turkestan, Afghanistan, Transcaspia, Persia – to many these words breathe only a sense of utter remoteness or a memory of strange vicissitudes and of moribund romance. To me, I confess, they are the pieces a chessboard upon which is being played out a game for the domination of the world.

“Because the successors of the Turkish Ottomans were unwilling and unable to exercise the right to rule many of their Turkish subjects in Eastern Turkistan, Britain evaluated her own right to rule these lands. After the defeat of Britain in Kabul, later British policy abdicated the right to rule Central Asia to Russia.India is considered by many as the successor state to the British Empire in India.

Farkhor Air Base is a Bharati airbase located near the town of Farkhor in Tajikistan, 80 miles South East of the capital Dushanbe. It is about a mile from the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border. The agreement to allow the functioning for the base was signed in 2003 and approved in late 2004. The Farkhor airbase allows the presence of the Indian Air Force and Indian Army stationed there. The air base has been fully operational readiness since early 2007.  News reports in 2007 indicated that Bharat had been evicted from the base. (http://www.india-defence.com/reports-3550). However these did not actually materialize and the base stations more than 150 military personnel and a few Migs. Indian military matériel acquired from Central Asia is stationed on the base on the Afhan border. It is a warehouse of equipment purchased from Russia and the Central Asian republics. Bharat purchases about seventy percent of its arms from Russia and the Central Asian Republics.

India’s “Beyond the Oxus” policy is being continued with vigor. Recent events of this week shows the counter moves by Russia to India’s moves into Central Asia. The Nehru-Singh Doctrine is very poignant to today’s issues. It’s latest twist is India’s realignment and its Faustian deals. The Nehru-Singh Doctrine in many ways is associated to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and it is linked to pre-planned events to destabilize Pakistan.

THE NEHRU-SINGH DOCTRINE EMULATES THE MONROE DOCTRINE: The Singh Doctrine is nothing new, it is the application of the American Monroe Doctrine to Asia. The Doctrine defines spheres of influence for powers with “security zones”. To understand the Singh Doctrine, and to confirm that history repeats itself, we need to leaf through the pages of history for lessons learned Lord Curzon has been described as British missionary with a vision.

After eliminating the “Indian Mutiny”,(War of Independence) the British got serious in India. The sloppy command of the East India Company was replaced by the British Army that brought the situation in control Spring boarding from the conquest of India, he tried to establish the seeds of a global British Empire that would face the Europeans rivals, the Russians and the Chinese, the pre-eminent powers of the time. Lord Curzon presided over the “High noon of the Empire” and wanted to take it to new heights.

Many saw it coming. The problems faced by Pakistan stem from the Sing doctrine and the events that surround the bases in Central Asia. Our Prologue discusses the current situation in detail.

The Bharati base had humbler beginnings. The city was used to support the the Northern Alliance fighters all through the 90s. The base was supported by Iran, Russia and Bharat. In 2001, the Indian military formally opened a 25-bed hospital at the base at Farkhor to treat Afghan Northern Alliance injured terrorists who were fighting the government in Kabul. The base treated the Northern Alliance military leader Ahmed Shah Massoud, who was rushed to the base after the suicide attack against him.

After the September 11, Tajikistan already facing the onslaught of the IMU, the TKO and the Taliban offered its bases, including Farkhor, to the United States. The Indian military hospital unit was moved to Afghanistan. The U.S. had initially shown interest in the Farkhor (and also Karshi-Khanabad and Ganci air bases) the base, but  did not proceed any further.

India now has two bases in Tajikistan, at Ayini near the Tajik capital and at Farkhor, Tajikistan, close to the border with Afghanistan. There were reports (India defence and New Post India)  from India that Russia has asked India to remove the Indian Air base at Ayni or hand it over to the Shanghi Cooperation Organization (SCO). That eviction has not happened. The events came on the heels of Russia ignoring Indian pressure and allowing China to re-export more than 500 the RD-93 engines to Pakistan for the JF/17-Thunder fighter aircraft. Russia is reportedly upset at India’s coziness with the USA. There are also problems on Indo-Russian deal for an the Goshkov Aircraft carrier. Delays and price hikes (Russia is asking for an additional $1.5 Billion. Oriignal price $1.2 Billion) are the tip of the iceberg of frosty Indo-Russian relationship.

THE NEHRU-VAJPAYEE-SINGH DOCTRINE’S “ON TO THE OXUS POLICY” Indira Gandhi once told Henry Kissinger, “the NWFP belongs to India and Punjab was in the way.” The Delhi strategists thought it was a great coup. Many analysts believed that it was a tectonic event. The repercussion of the base are being felt today. Pakistan is now facing the tsunami after the earthquake. In 2007 it was felt that India had over-extended its hand by trying to destabilizing Pakistan.

The Farkhor Air Base gives the Indian military a range of terror activities against Pakistan and China. The implications of this terror base go far beyond the Indian-Pakistani rivalry on the subcontinent. Bharat has used the base to spread terror to Pakistan, China and Iran through this base.

HISTORY-ENTRY INTO DUSHAMBE: Dushambe has been the object of lust for centuries. The entry of the Ottoman Sultan into Dushambe has been aptly described by Milton in “Paradise Lost”. Here are few lines.

His eye might there command wherever stood
City of old or modern fame, the seat
Of mightiest empire, from the destined walls
Of Cambalu, seat of Cathaian Can,
And Samarkand by Oxus, Temir’s throne,
To Paquin of Sinaean kings, and thence
To Agra and Lahore of Great Mogul
(Milton, Paradise Lost, XI.385-391)

His eye might there command wherever stood
City of old or modern fame, the seat
Of mightiest empire, from the destined walls
Of Cambalu, seat of Cathaian Can,
And Samarkand by Oxus, Temir’s throne,
To Paquin of Sinaean kings, and thence
To Agra and Lahore of Great Mogul   (Milton, Paradise Lost, XI.385-391)

Thus the British move into Afghanistan was a total failure and British retreated back  to the Khyber Pass and ruled India from the Khyber to Burma.

“Independent India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, shared Curzon’s expansive vision, declaring India “the pivot round which the defense problems of the Middle East, the Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia revolve.” Wary Chinese strategists perceive a continuity of strategic design from Curzon to the Congress party today, accusing Nehru at that time of harboring ambitions for a “greater Indian empire,” and more recently criticizing India’s aspirations for “global military power.”

“China and India,” writes the Carnegie Endowment’s Ashley Tellis, “appeared destined for competition almost from the moment of their creation as modern states.” The New Great Game. Daniel Twining

 

SINGH VS. REHMAT ALI:

The antithesis of the Singh Doctrine is the Chaudry Rehmat Ali Doctrine. We have discussed the Chaudry Rehmat Ali Doctrine as accepted by General Hamid Gul that aspires to establish Pakistan as the focul point of the problems faced by the Central Asian Republics and what India will have to face in the coming decades, if it continues to follow the imperial policy of Lord Curzon.

THE DISASTER IN