The Dawn

After a brazen attack on Kabul, the Taliban and anti-occupation forces launched another attack on Helmund. These attacks are getting closer and closer to the nerve centers and indicate that the NATO and ISAF forces cannot defend even the cities. The surge itself will eventually supposed to reverse the insurgent gains–but other events are overtaking the surge–which will turn out to be irrelevant.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Jan. 29 (UPI) — Islamabad welcomed a measure to find a political solution to the Afghan insurgency through talks with moderate Taliban, the Pakistani foreign minister said.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said Islamabad saw an opportunity in a measure to work with the Afghan government to convince moderate Taliban and other militants to lay down their weapons, Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper reports.

“Afghan President Hamid Karzai has requested Pakistan for help in this connection, for which Pakistan is ready to play its role,” said the foreign minister.

In an unprecedented move and in perpetration for the Taliban’s entry into the Kabul government, the UN dropped the names of many Taliban from its terror list. This charade brings into question the rational and moral imperative of the so called Good War. If the invaders wanted to talk to the Taliban leadership–it should have done to in 2002.This is what Ayesha Siddqa says:

Nothing could be clearer than the fact that there is an ever-widening divide in the perception, interests and understanding of the situation amongst the various stakeholders in Afghanistan. The regional states have their eyes on maximising benefits as the US reviews cutting its losses and bailing out of Kabul.

Although American officials explained that the Obama administration is yet to take a final decision regarding withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, it is quite clear that the US and its Nato allies are looking for an exit. This would mean finding some face-saving method for allied forces to withdraw. Ayesha Siddqa. The Dawn

Negotiations with the Taliban have been going on for two or three years. The Bush Administration would not accept the Taliban requirement for withdrawal or discussion about withdrawal. Then the financial crisis hit and changed everything. The Brits wanted to get out. President Obama appeased the hawks by announcing a surge, and tried to curry favor with the doves by announcing a withdrawal date. The announced withdrawal has serious logistical constraints–and may actually never happen, or at least not in the manner it which it was announced. It is clear that the Pakistanis have been helping the Americans face save and conduct an under-the-radar dialogue with the Taliban. It is an open secret that negotiations have been taking place. Now the discussion has moved to back channel diplomacy to announced talks. The Taliban posturing hides nothing. They have been negotiating with the Americans on various counts–in Soudi Arbia, through the Gulf countries and through double agents. 

The Taliban’s leaders will decide soon about joining talks with the Afghan government, a spokesman said on Friday, after President Hamid Karzai invited them to a peace council as part of efforts to end years of fighting. “I cannot say a word regarding these peace talks. The Taliban leadership will soon decide whether to take part in these peace talks,” Taliban spokesman Qari Mohammad Yousuf said. The Nation

The situation in and around Kabul is heating up and at a fast pace.

As efforts to stabilise Afghanistan gather pace, Pakistan is likely to use those groups as bargaining chips, said Khadim Hussain of the Pakistan-based Aryana Institute think-tank

“I don’t think Pakistan is going to put all of its cards on the table. They will try to keep some of them for their own interests and agenda,” Hussain said.

“Pakistan will keep the whole thing very vague so it can address its own interests and foreign policy agenda.”

In an indication of the quickening pace of diplomacy, a U.N. official said members of the Taliban’s leadership council had secretly met the U.N. representative for Afghanistan in Dubai last month to discuss the possibility of laying down arms. Reuters India

This is what Ayesha Siddqa says:

The Obama administration is considering various methods to woo the Taliban, that would include the use of money and carefully applying the divide and rule policy through which the ‘good’ Taliban could be separated from the ‘bad’. In this case, the good probably refers to a newer generation that might be more willing to cut deals with foreign forces than the older generation, which partnered with the likes of Osama bin Laden.

The anxiety expressed by some circles in Pakistan regarding a negotiation plan is strange considering that the military and the strategic community on the whole have always supported such an idea. In fact, Pervez Musharraf continues to market the idea. There is also the worry mentioned earlier that the US might do the talking on its own. However, this shouldn’t be a worry since it is not easy to ignore the ISI — with its extensive contacts with the Taliban. Sources even claim that a meeting between the ISI, CIA and Mullah Omar did take place in the past couple of months organised by Pakistan’s intelligence operatives.

The Taliban do not seem averse to talking to the US, especially now that Washington might not be insisting on Mullah Omar and his men surrendering Osama dead or alive. The Taliban and their handlers would be happy to negotiate with the US since they were never really averse to the idea of such talks. There are some who believe that an agreement could have been reached only if the US was not in such a hurry to attack.

Consequently, Mullah Omar seems to have signalled his willingness not to engage in a war in case he is included in Afghanistan’s future political set-up. Interestingly, other sources have denied the report. But why wouldn’t he talk as he has everything to gain?

Not only would he be a part of Kabul’s future political dispensation, he would also be a part of establishing a religion-oriented state that would get as much support from the West as Saudi Arabia, if not more. So denying reports of conciliation may be for harder bargaining but definitely not to create anxiety in western capitals which may force them to change their minds.

A deal with Mullah Omar is all that the allies could look forward to since there is no possibility whatsoever of a much-needed arrangement amongst regional stakeholders like India, Iran and Pakistan regarding Kabul’s future.Ayesha Siddqa. The Dawn

The crux of the Afghan problem is the proxy war between Bharat (aka India) and Pakistan. Like Bharat, Pakistan has planned for the best and the worst case options. Bharat, along with Iran and Russia kept the pot boiling in the Northern Panshir Valley when the aligned themselves to Ahmed Shah Mehsud. The Taliban after repeated tries could not take over areas controlled by the Northern Alliance. There was a stalemate.

In Bharati worst-case scenario calculations they want to bifurcate Afghanistan into Bharati-Afghanistan and Pakistani-Afghanistan. Under that calculation Delhi would control the former Northern Alliance territory. However this calcualtion has serious flaws in it. The Taliban are now in Northern Afghanistan, and Mr. Dostum is not the Ahmed Shah Mehsud bulwark that he used to be. The Taliban have encroached right up to the border of Uzbekistan, where the Uzbeks are now allied with the Taliban.

Pakistani Foreign Minister defended Pakistan’s insistence on keeping Bharat out of the regional conference on Afghanistan. This is a major victory of Pakistan’s point of view as it was endorsed by the London Conference

Underlining Pakistan’s determination to keep India out of any Afghan process, Qureshi expressed satisfaction a proposal to set up a regional body including India had been dropped “Pakistan said there was no need for a new regional architecture … Today, our point of view was understood and incorporated.” Reuters India

Delhi is reeling from being kept out of the regional Conference and tried to set up a parallel structure at the London Conference. However the majority of states did not endorse the Delhi plan. In practical terms this shuts the legal and constitutional role of Delhi in Afghanistan. It can and will continue the bilateral relationship with the puppets in Kabul–’till they are replaced. The coalition government being proposed will not accept any role for Delhi. 

While Islamabad is apprehensive of the Indian presence due to its fear of a two-front situation in the future, India seems to be thinking in terms of the best- and worst-case scenarios. The former pertains to a situation where Delhi is able to put Pakistan on the defensive. It has already tried to achieve the objective through a mix of intelligence and development assistance tactics. The worst-case scenario for Delhi, on the other hand, pertains to the political balkanisation of Afghanistan in which Islamabad’s influence is limited to the southern provinces while India has greater influence over Kabul and the north.

There are apparent holes in this strategy since India might not be able to hold the south after an American withdrawal. Since Delhi has not invested in the friendlier provinces in the north and concentrated all its efforts in the south, it may not be able to establish a foothold in either part. It may try to do the trick through pumping money to the Afghan Taliban, but there are no guarantees that this will work.

There could even be a worst-case scenario in which Delhi gets crushed in Afghanistan and on its mainland through these non-state forces. The fact that Pakistan also bleeds profusely in the process is a given. But it’s sad to see states not understanding the future cost of their strategic games.

It’s most unfortunate that the regional states, which will suffer the most after they are left to confront each other’s interests in Afghanistan after a US withdrawal, do not think of a joint strategy. The Pandora’s box — which many believe was opened due to American intervention in Afghanistan — will not be shut by a US withdrawal. There are a couple of possibilities that come to mind.Ayesha Siddqa. The Dawn

The regional conference on Afghanistan, without Bharat (aka India) supported the Taliban in the government–and this is what is going to happen.

ISTANBUL — Afghanistan’s neighbours and Turkey on Tuesday backed President Hamid Karzai’s plan to offer incentives to Taliban fighters to make them lay down arms, in a joint statement issued after talks here.

“We… support the Afghan national process of reconciliation and reintegration in accordance with the constitution of Afghanistan in a way that is Afghan-led and -driven,” the statement said.

The talks were attended by Karzai, his counterparts from Pakistan and Turkey as well as senior officials from Iran, China, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. AFP

There could be a repeat of the 90s ending up in a horrible civil war and a proxy war in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the country could have peace, if the coalition consensus government includes all the players. Bharat has played a very dirty game in Afghanistan and sees its days numbered. Iran is the wild card. During the 90s she allied itself with Bharat in supporting the Northern Alliance. If it were not for Iran, there would have been no Northern Alliance and no American invasion of Afghanistan. Tehran provided key support to the US during the 2002 invasion. Iran has recently attended the regional conference held in Turkey sans Bharat–however it boycotted the internal conference in London. Bharat, on Pakistan’s insistence was not invited to the Turkish sponsored conference which included all of Afghanistan’s neighbors.

First, there could be a deliberate lull in violence after the allied forces leave. This is a period when other regional forces with stakes in Afghanistan will be regrouping to claim greater territory and interests. Second, violence could probably increase initially in Afghanistan and then in the entire region.

The regional actors would pump in resources and use contacts with the proxies to create greater chaos and mayhem on the other side. This is certainly a dangerous proposition since what we may be looking at is a conflict which will not be contained within specific boundaries. Therefore, we may end up having larger ungovernable spaces. Such a development will threaten India as much as it will Pakistan. Or perhaps it will affect Pakistan more since society is already bleeding from the impact of a decade of the war on terror.

Sadly, there is no end in sight to proxy wars in the region and non-state actors. In fact, heightened competition between India and Pakistan over Afghanistan will result in greater justification on both sides for maintaining non-state actors as proxies.

Such a prognosis means that there will be more youth who will be deprived of their right to education, a better and hygienic environment, greater access to health and personal security. They will be sacrificed at the altar of national ego and fooled into ‘martyrdom’ in the name of faith. Ayesha Siddqa. The Dawn. The writer is an independent strategic and political analyst. ayesha.ibd@gmail.com

The end game is near–and all players are working hard to defend their positions. The Pakistanis supported the Taliban, and it is inevitable that they come back to power. They hate the Bharatis and the Indian Consulates along the Pakistani border will be closed soon.

The only real solution to brining peace in West Asia is a confederation between Pakistan and Afghanistan.